Synopsis

可再生能源（RE）在全球范围内正在增长，在过去的十年中，非Hydro可再生能源从85吉瓦（GW）增长了六倍。该报告回顾了解释RE增长的主要趋势，并强调了它们在巴西，中国，印度和吉尔吉斯斯坦等国家的挑战性决策。

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关键发现

可再生能源的增长可以归因于5个关键市场趋势：

  • 可再生能源的前所未有的增长和成本提高
  • 改进新技术和能源效率
  • 化石燃料供应和价格的不稳定
  • Growing support from governments and investors
  • 新实体和不同实体的发电

这些趋势正在造成电力部门的不确定性，并引起新的挑战，迫使决策者思考如何最好地做出反应。监管机构，网格操作员，规划人员和公用事业现在必须与以下的技术变化抗衡，同时还可以平衡常规的，预先存在的压力，以增加电力通行，增加提供的电力的数量和可靠性，并提高所提供的电力和可靠性提供的服务质量。通常，该报告发现，决策者需要应对三个关键挑战，以建立一个未来的网格，以提供清洁，可靠和负担得起的能源：

  • Technology and Infrastructure:由于采用了新的间歇技术和分布式生成，因此对网格的复杂性和物理限制增加了。传统的电网正在发展成为一个更复杂的网络，该网络在设计，操作和管理方面变得越来越具有挑战性。
  • Institutional Arrangements:The conventional, central utility model is being challenged by quickening trends toward distributed, on-site, and self-generation. The centralized, top-down approach to operating the grid is being tested and the role of the conventional utility is being brought into question.
  • 电力定价和公平性：由于新一代和网格技术的规模扩大以及向新一代模型转移的规模，引起了电力定价和公平问题，这引起了有关适当和公平的关税，跨补贴和成本负担的问题。

执行摘要

Changes in the sector, driven in part by objectives such as energy security, socio-economic development, increasing sustainable energy, environmental protection, climate change mitigation, public health, and increased public choice, are causing a number of trends: new and disruptive technologies, including variable renewable energy, small distributed generation and storage, are being deployed; new players such as individual homeowners and communities, are arising as legitimate electricity generators; and overall market dynamics are changing with the introduction of policy support mechanisms for clean energy, and increased competition. With these changes a new set of questions are arising regarding technical, institutional, and economic restructuring necessary to integrate these changes, and turn potential system wide threats into opportunities.

这些变化不仅在发达国家，而且在印度等发展中国家发生。本报告回顾了这些趋势如何挑战当前的比赛状态，以及在巴西，中国，印度和吉尔吉斯斯坦的系统规划人员，电力公司，监管机构，消费者和政策制定者如何积极地开始计划过渡到未来网格。