Synopsis

通过鼓励清洁技术部署并将新的成本施加在常见的商品上，气候政策将对国际贸易流量产生重大影响。必威官网是真的吗本文件回答了有关气候政策及其对国际商品贸易的影响的基本问题。必威官网是真的吗

Executive Summary

气候政策将如何影响必威官网是真的吗美国贸易竞争力？

Over the coming decade, countries around the world will adopt a variety of climate policies to impose costs for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since these policies will vary in form and stringency, the costs they impose on manufacturers will not be uniform across all nations.

Although a global patchwork of climate policies could disadvantage specific American industries, policy leadership would provide the U.S. economy with an early signal for rising fossil fuel costs and supply constraints, potentially improving future competitiveness of domestic industries. A global, carbon-constrained future will demand a shift to low-carbon energy technologies and business models. Past experience in renewable energy and efficient vehicle technologies has seen companies profit from strong regulatory environments at home to build competitive advantage abroad. Uncertain domestic policy will not serve companies well in the medium to long term, as other countries will build markets for low-carbon products and services. Such concerns have led many major companies to call for strong mandatory U.S. climate policy.

然而，可能会经历相对较高合规成本的国家 /地区的特定行业担心，它们将对依从性成本相对较低的国家的竞争对手处于劣势。他们认为，积​​极的气候政策可以极大地促进导致工作“离必威官网是真的吗岸”和行业迁移到具有较低标准和生产成本的国家的因素。

Could the relocation of industries lead to a global rise in emissions?

If global supply chains shift manufacturing from countries with stringent policies to lower cost countries, global emissions would rise through a process commonly referred to as emissions “leakage.” While U.S. climate policy would reduce domestic emissions, the net environmental effectiveness of the policy may be undermined if emission sources simply migrate to countries without absolute caps. In order to prevent this, environmentalists have frequently supported the international harmonization of environmental standards and enforcement to minimize differences in compliance costs across nations.

Which industries will be most sensitive to differentiated international approaches to climate policy?

The degree to which a particular industry is adversely impacted by higher relative costs of compliance with climate policy depends on three variables:

  • Energy intensity of production：上涨的能源价格对特定行业的影响部分是通过在总生产成本中所占的份额来确定的。对于钢铁和水泥等相对强度的行业，能源购买占总成本的10％至20％。相比之下，能源不到运输设备和电子制造总成本的1％。

  • Potential for efficiency improvements or fuel switching: An industry’s ability to improve GHG efficiency of production through technological improvements or fuel switching determines the extent to which increased energy prices translate into higher overall production costs.

  • Availability of substitutes：替代品的可用性 - 来自外国生产者或任何生产者的不同但可互换商品的好处 - 最小化公司将成本传递给消费者的能力使其对增加的生产成本更加敏感。

通常，这些指标表明受影响最大的部门包括纸，化学品，非有效性和亚铁金属以及非金属矿物产品（例如玻璃和水泥）。

经济影响可能是什么？

大多数经济分析表明，在没有解决合规成本相对差异的机制的情况下（请参阅第2页），脆弱行业将面临一些压力，以搬迁到具有较少严格气候政策的国家。必威官网是真的吗一个独立研究组织的未来资源正在努力通过建模和计量经济分析来量化美国气候政策对这些行业产出的影响。必威官网是真的吗两项使用不同方法的初步研究发现，在美国，二氧化碳（但在其他国家 /地区没有）将二氧化碳的收费征收10美元，这将导致这些行业的国内产出下降0.5％至6％。

What policies could help harmonize compliance costs across nations?

目前正在考虑的主要政策选择促进碳密集型行业的国际合规成本的国际协调性可以分为三种类型：

  • 成本控制机制aim to reduce the pressure on carbon-intensive industries by limiting the cost of complying with climate legislation. The most direct methods proposed have sought to use allowance allocations (see Issue 1 of WRI’s Bottom Line series) to reimburse exposed sectors for the costs of complying with the legislation. Although such policies could shield industries from newfound competitiveness concerns, they must be carefully structured to maintain incentives for emissions mitigation and avoid overcompensation.

  • 贸易措施不要限制国内生产者的成本，而是通过处理进口商品将类似的成本应用于其他国家的竞争公司。尽管这种政策机制在第110届国会中得到了支持，但潜在的重大缺陷被忽略了。例如，进口的边境价格调整将通过增加原材料成本来对下游制造商（例如汽车行业）产生负面影响。此外，这些政策对保护重要的出口市场无济于事，因为调整仅适用于美国市场。最后，贸易指标可能会损害重要的国际谈判，以建立多边协议以解决气候变化（请参阅其他参考文献）。必威官网是真的吗

  • Coordinated international actionsseek to reduce the pressure on carbon-intensive industries by encouraging major trading partners to impose similar costs on their companies directly. Although widely seen by environmentalists and economists as an optimal mechanism for addressing competitiveness concerns, perfect coordination is unlikely in the immediate future, so some other mechanism may be necessary for a transitional period.

References and Acknowledgments

其他参考
致谢

WRI要感谢我们的许多内部和外部审稿人提供有关底线系列中各种问题草案的反馈。WRI还希望感谢以下支持我们的气候和商业参与活动的基础，并帮助使本系列成为可能：必威官网是真的吗

  • Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation
  • 理查德和罗达高盛基金会
  • Robertson Foundation
  • UK Global Opportunities Fund
  • WestWind Foundation