环境保护局(EPA)carbon emissions regulations for existing power plants,本月初发布的是公用事业客户通过可再生能源节省大量的机会,从而使当前的趋势加油。纽约独立系统运营商的研究(纽约ISO),突触能量经济学,以及国家可再生能源实验室(nrel)建议increased renewable energy generation has the potential to save American ratepayers tens of billions of dollars a year over the current mix of electric power options。这并不意味着这种过渡将没有成本,例如升级基础设施和退休现有发电厂,而是对美国消费者的收益可能超过这些费用。

可再生能源:为所有人节省

纽约ISO,Synapse Economics和NREL进行的研究检查了可再生能源发电对美国四个主要的电力系统的成本和收益 - 在纽约州,中陆ISO的ISO(NY ISO)(MISO)服务中西部大部分的PJM互连(PJM)服务中大西洋地区和西方互连- 与60%的美国人口或1.9亿人提供电力。这些研究涵盖了拥有和经营自己的发电舰队的竞争电力市场和传统的电力公用事业。

所有研究都表明,可再生能源通过更换运营昂贵的电厂来削减全系统成本,这主要是由于化石燃料费用。纽约ISO表明,到2018年,纽约州增加8吉瓦的风能将每年节省13亿美元的电厂运营成本,每人约65美元。

Miso和PJM的研究表明,在电厂运行中节省了类似的节省,$12.2 billion per year by adding 40 GW of wind capacity in MISO到2020年每年通过风能运送PJM的22%的电力,每年145亿美元by 2026. Both of these studies note that an investment in electricity infrastructure is required to integrate large amounts of new renewable energy generation onto the MISO and PJM systems. However, lower wholesale power prices far outweigh the needed infrastructure investment and provide a net benefit of up to $9.4 billion a year in MISO—$241 per year per person—and $6.9 billion a year in PJM—or $113 per year per person.

In the Western Interconnection, a sprawling region covering the 14 states west of the Rocky Mountains, NREL showed a potential savings in power plant operations ofnearly $7 billion a year—$83 per year per person—from delivering 33 percent of electricity generation with wind and solar energy sources on the system as it looked in 2011. NREL’s calculations also included the cost of conventional power plants fueled by coal and natural gas, compensating for the variability of wind and solar energy sources. This cost proved to be minimal: a maximum of 2 percent of the total savings in power plant operation.

None of these studies evaluated the cost of retiring one fleet of power plants and building a replacement fleet. They only pointed to the cost savings consumers would see from operating a more renewable fleet. In the NY ISO, MISO, and PJM studies, this was because ratepayers wouldn’t bear that cost and investors who bet on fossil fuels bear the financial impact of having a power plant that can no longer sell its power. By contrast, the NREL study covers several states that still have traditional power sectors. In these states, ratepayers do bear the cost of building those plants. This erodes some of the savings consumers see from the lower cost of renewable energy. This also means investors would have to take into account the cost of further capital investments in fossil fuel plants that may have to close because they pollute too much. The overall lower-cost option may well be to move to renewable energy earlier,限制滞留的资产,并充分利用运营节省。

加速现有趋势

The lower cost of operating renewable energy facilities and the system-wide cost savings outlined above have already eroded coal’s role in new generation in the United States. In 2013,美国只有10%来自煤炭。投资者和纳税人对将煤炭推向新设施的赌注很适合。并在最近的报告花旗集团(Citigroup)投资银行预计,到2020年,所有新的美国发电都将来自可再生能源。



趋势很明显:美国正朝着更清洁的发电发展,可再生能源处于最前沿。EPA的新规定将有助于加速这种过渡,继续减少美国碳排放,并为客户提供数百美元的储蓄,并与继续运营当前的电厂车队的成本相比。