The Bonn Climate Change Conferencehas just begun, the G7 Summit is just a few days away, and theCOP21 United Nations climate conferenceis fewer than six months away. International leaders are negotiating many issues, but one topic will be at the center of all three – providing a pathway to reach the COP15 decision of securing $100 billion of climate finance annually by 2020.

New analysisfrom WRI shows a credible and politically balanced path towards $100 billion in 2020 is possible by including a larger set of climate finance sources in a balanced way while scaling up all public finance.

Getting to $100 Billion: Climate Finance Scenarios and Projections to 2020is one of the first quantitative analyses of realistic funding scenarios to achieve the $100 billion goal. It shows that if all considered sources are included, climate finance could total $109 to $155 billion in 2020 under projections of low-medium growth and leverage.

到2020年目标到1000亿美元的重要性

2009年，在哥本哈根的COP15上，发达国家致力于到2020年每年共同动员1000亿美元的目标，从“多种来源，公共和私人，双边和多边，包括替代资金来源”。但是，五年后，歧义仍然存在于来源，工具和渠道上，这将使发达国家能够实现这一目标。

在今年12月在巴黎举行的气候会议之前建立信任并将各国团结在一起至关重要。必威官网是真的吗尽管《巴黎协定》以2020年后的气候制度为中心，但只要发达国家没有提供纪念2020年前哥本哈根的承诺的途径，就不太可能就2020年必威官网是真的吗后的财务协议。而且，发展中国家不太可能在巴黎签署一项协议，而没有有力的可预测和充分气候融资的规定。必威官网是真的吗定义一种实现1000亿美元的现实和政治上可接受的方式是成功的巴黎协议的关键条件。

虽然1000亿美元本身不足以产生低碳，但气候弹性转变与必威官网是真的吗keeping average global temperature increases to 2°C (3.6 °F), it is an important political goal that will help signal to the private sector developed countries’ commitment to scaling up climate finance.

Recent work has deepened our understanding on the definition of climate finance and current flows, including the Standing Committee on Finance’s recentBiennial Assessment and Overview of Climate Finance Flows 2014《气候公约》；必威官网是真的吗经合组织估计动员私人气候融资必威官网是真的吗;国际发展金融俱乐部（IDFC）最近Climate Finance Forum，多边开发银行和IDFC采用了对气候友好投资的统一定义；必威官网是真的吗以及即将到来的关于长期气候融资的背景报告，由西塞罗（Cicero）和《气候政策倡议》为德国G7总统准备必威官网是真的吗，该计划提供了有关气候融资的来源，参与者，工具和趋势的概述的最新信息。

Greater Clarity and Stronger Commitments Are Necessary

Getting to $100 Billion在COP21会议之前，可以实现关于气候资金目标的政治协议。必威官网是真的吗我们的论文不专注于对来源和工具的讨论，也不关注有关气候融资的定义问题。必威官网是真的吗相反，我们旨在激发有关金融类型的对话，这些金融类型可能会符合每年1亿美元的目标。该论文提出了几种途径，在这些途径下，发达国家可以履行其2020年的承诺。

We grouped finance sources that might count toward the $100 billion goal into four scenarios, taking care to remove any overlap among them:

  • 方案1: Developed country climate finance only, as contained in countries’ biennial reports to the UNFCCC
  • 方案2：发达国国家气候金融以及杠杆私营部门投资必威官网是真的吗
  • 方案3: Developed country climate finance, multilateral development bank (MDB) climate finance (weighted by developed countries’ capital share), and the combined leveraged private sector investment for both sources of public finance
  • 方案4: The previous sources, plus climate-related official development assistance (ODA) as compiled by the OECD, adjusted for overlap with the country biennial reports.

我们预测了从2012年到2020年的潜在气候融资来源，必威官网是真的吗使用了三个历史增长率和三个杠杆因素，用于从经验研究中得出的私营部门投资。所有四个潜在的途径都需要稳定地增加公共财政，才能达到1000亿美元的目标。

Finding a Political Middle Ground

Getting to $100 Billiondoes not advocate for any specific scenario, but our analysis suggests a combination of sources will likely be needed to reach the target. This could entail the inclusion of more sources but in a balanced way.

Developed nations should do their part by committing to keep increasing all public funding flows to 2020, and we’re already seeing new commitments – Germany’s recent announcement to double its climate finance to 4 billion Euros by 2020 is a welcome step forward. Developed nations should also consider using new and innovative sources of finance including redirected fossil fuel subsidies, carbon market revenue, financial transaction taxes, export credits and debt relief – many of which have so far been underutilized to mobilize climate finance.

In turn, all parties should clarify the definition of climate finance and development of methodologies, including those for calculating and attributing leveraged private sector investment, to improve accounting and reporting.

我们分析中提出的途径和建议旨在帮助将讨论更接近1000亿美元的目标，同时说明谈判者可以在哪里找到政治中间立场。