By Katharina Davis

由于许多人正在接受极端天气事件和慢性压力作为新常态，因此很明显，我们期望在“遥远的未来”中发生的事件已经到来并且必然会加剧。如果我们将这些发展与我们时代的其他加速变化相结合 - 人口迅速增长，城市化和移民，以及连通性和数字化的激增，以及对环境的严重退化，我们会看到理由会感到震惊。

然而，这些现象中的大多数和大型趋势都是由人类行动驱动的，无论好坏。这意味着我们有能力纠正课程并实现难以想象的积极未来。While we all may have different visions of what those would entail, we would likely strive for prosperity for all, for a future where people and planet are thriving through symbiosis, and technologies responsibly enhance our human connections, and thus our feeling as ‘one’.

Resilience scholars and practitioners have long grappled with the issue of how to plan for uncertainty and achieve positive futures for sustainable development. Here are five key insights we can learn from the resilience approach:

Dream big, then establish pathways

鉴于目前的驾驶员，未来看起来很可怕，甚至将短期计划置于地面上是一项艰巨的壮举。但是关键是利用积极的未来情景来为可持续发展创造愿景，

在回到现在并确定实现这种未来的潜在途径和里程碑之前。这种方法允许出现所有可能性，权衡和陷阱。灵活性通过保持广泛而持续应对变化来整合到视觉中。

这些遥远的未来可能与我们像往常一样从业务中期望的情况大不相同，需要变革/过渡，这是我们短期，增量计划无法实现的。Long-term Climate Strategies, a proposed deliverable from the Paris Climate Agreement, could offer countries an incentive to engage in such planning processes to design long-term visions for a low-carbon and climate-resilient future.

人们的能力首先，然后是技术

在加速变化和惊喜事件的时代，我们社会的持久性，适应性和转变性是必须的。尽管有必要预先缓解风险驱动因素并预期大型趋势的变化，但甚至需要学习如何持续适应和利用这些变化，甚至需要更加需要。这需要将我们的重点从确定性的适应和缓解干预措施扩大到建立适应能力和系统中动态社会安排。

Disruptions and surprises can have many sources and enable us to leap forward or fall back – dynamic, adaptive capacities will allow us to navigate the sea of disruptive technological, social, and environmental changes. This is why integrated governance systems and the development of strong, yet flexible, networks should be at the core of long-term climate strategies.

Diversify and expand your bandwidth

Risk diversification is a hallmark of resilience. As we plan for zero-carbon transitions in our lifeline sectors, such as energy, water, agriculture and transport, we need to consider how they will hold up against mega trends such as climate change, population growth and disruptive technologies. The same is true for our governance and socio-ecological networks that glue our systems together.

多样性，权力下放和冗余形成了弹性系统的关键特征。“重复”或“备份”系统与当今对“效率”的重视不符。但是，在韧性方面，这些备份节点对于确保整个系统的继续和自我修复至关重要，即使某些元素失败。同样重要的是确保某些带宽以避免系统超负荷和中断。随着各国制定部门计划和相关治理网络，此类考虑应该是长期气候战略计划过程的关键部分。必威官网亚洲体育必威官网是真的吗

为失败做准备

快速变化和机会事件可能会迅速使最佳的缓解或适应措施脱轨，有时会导致每个规模造成灾难。因此，我们需要重新考虑我们认为的失败。在一个高度不确定性的时代，我们需要将重点转移到管理impact失败而不是简单地降低失败的概率。

In other words, rather than designing fail-proof or ‘climate-proof’ interventions that aim to reduce the probability of failing but may have significant impact after a failure, we need to focus on managing outcomes through “Safe to Fail” interventions that lower the consequences. This approach is closely linked to the notion of diversity (above), where a given problem is best approached from various angles to achieve a holistic solution and weather uncertainties.

思考整个系统

Every intervention to address climate change ultimately begs the questions: (1) what issue is being addressed (2) for whom, and (3) who is carrying the burden of the action or transition? Selecting which sectors, infrastructure, geographical areas and/or population groups to prioritize can be one of the most vexing challenges when crafting climate plans. Long-term priorities can become obscured by short-term priorities that can then adversely impact climate and development goals.

This is why long-term visioning – 2050 and beyond – becomes so crucial. Those aspirations can help countries define clear pathways in which the health of the entire system and sub-systems are considered. As such, long-term visions are best co-produced through a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach to ensure that all voices are heard, with trade-offs skillfully addressed through smart development policies that carefully (re)balance the inter-system relations.

结论

The resilience approach offers valuable insights on how to proceed and enable in the short term the path for long-term climate planning under high uncertainty. Envisioning positive futures, anticipating changes, and strengthening adaptive capacities of our systems is key to transformational change. This approach can inspire 2050 long-term climate strategies that result in equitable and green futures for all.