根据《巴黎协定》，当事方同意将全球平均温度的升高升至远低于2°C，并努力将增加到1.5°C。中世纪的长期低GHG排放发展策略（”long-term strategies") underpin the transformative potential of the Paris Agreement. By catalyzing a process by which decision-makers across key sectors of the economy re-think policy, development, and technology pathways, long-term strategies offer the opportunity to facilitate the alignment of national action with the Paris goals.

Parties were被邀请参加put forward long-term strategies under the Paris Agreement by 2020. To date, seven countries have officially communicated long-term strategies to UN Climate Change—Benin, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Mexico and the United States. And many other countries are in the midst of designing them.

WRI和开发计划署与联合国气候变化合作，刚刚推出必威官网是真的吗一组资源所有国家都可以用来告知长期战略的发展。这些资源捕获了近40位专家的关键见解 - 包括Patricia Espinosa，，，，尼古拉斯·斯特恩and劳伦斯·图比亚纳（Laurence Tubiana）– on topics ranging from adaptation to modeling to finance to ensuring a just transition.

下面我们在与长期策略有关的三个关键问题上重点介绍了一些关键发现：

Why Pursue Long-term Strategies?

Today's decisions will shape what the world will look like for decades to come. Our ability to limit dangerous climate change and achieve development goals will be determined by whether we can fundamentally change the way we frame problems and make decisions, moving from a short-sighted and reactive approach to a strategic and transformational approach guided by a shared vision.

A long-term strategy embraces a '2050 is now'mindset and helps to avoid the dangers of short-term thinking, which may take decades to reverse, incur heavy costs, lock out development opportunities and increase the reliance upon risky, unproven technologies. Long-term strategies steer decisions in a way that catalyzes a low-carbon future while also ensuring food, water and energy security for generations to come.

Without a long-term vision, there is a risk of making decisions that only prioritize near-term gains, which may lock out long-term development opportunities and end up perpetuating poverty. A country may have an ambitious short-term commitment through its nationally determined contribution (NDC), but without a long-term strategy, it may not be adequately preparing for the necessary long-term transitions.

建立长期战略可以提供一些其他重要的国内利益。例如，长期战略可以从投资长期气候行动中确定真正的经济利益。必威官网是真的吗它还可以为所有演员提供大胆和具体行动的政治确定性。重要的是，如果设计良好，并与正确的资源和计划相结合，长期战略也可以通过向与高碳经济相关的企业发送早期和可预测的信号来支持正义的过渡。

长期策略的关键要素是什么？

长期战略的范围和深度将由国家决定。因此，长期策略没有一定大小的格式或结构。但是，长期策略的一些关键要素包括：

  • a long-term vision;
  • 可持续发展的考虑；
  • mitigation elements (including a long-term quantified outcome for GHG emissions reductions and results of mitigation models and scenarios);
  • 适应元素；
  • 部门策略（包括政策和行动，随着时间的推移将实现的里程碑，有关管理长期目标过渡的信息等）；
  • 实施方法；
  • 以及监视计划和修订过程。

When these elements are considered together, countries can evaluate tradeoffs among them and ensure that all are supported in the long-term strategy.

What Are Key Considerations for the Development of a Long-term Strategy?

首先，长期计划的气候变化和发展概念引起了独特的治理挑战。必威官网亚洲体育必威官网是真的吗如果长期策略在指导整个社会的短期，中等和长期的计划和投资决策方面，确保关键部门，部门，机构以及非政府利益相关者对最终策略的买入和所有权至关重要至关重要。启动有效的，只是过渡到低温温室气体发射和弹性途径。这将需要：

  • 政治领导: Clear high-level mandates and vision can foster greater coordination within and across ministries. Political leadership at the highest level can help drive the strategy, build momentum and get the right stakeholders and ministries involved.
  • Institutional arrangements:制定并随后实施长期战略的过程需要中央各部委，多个部门部委，次国政府，民间社会以及许多国家的土著自治机构的参与。在许多情况下，这将需要建立或重新考虑现有的长期计划机构安排。
  • 法律框架：Supportive legal frameworks ensure strong coherence across government strategy and policies – to avoid expensive and conflicting policies.
  • Stakeholder engagement:Stakeholders can help planners and decision-makers by providing information and preferences that can build a shared vision and may become important constituencies in the implementation of the long-term strategy.

除了治理考虑因素外，还需要资源必威官网亚洲体育和一定程度的能力来制定长期战略；在温室气体库存数据需求方面，评估以确定气候变化驱动因素和影响，现有政策或私营部门以及民间社会参与，这无疑会因各个国家而变化并确定。必威官网是真的吗

另一个考虑因素是需要建立现有计划和政策。这将需要考虑到现有的长期规划和目标的建立程度（例如，一个国家可能已经存在的任何长期经济计划过程）必威官网是真的吗他们是否符合巴黎协议的目标。

We hope that our project resources will serve as helpful inputs as countries prepare long-term strategies. In the coming months, we will be publishing additional expert perspectives, as well as case studies and research papers to gather lessons on factors contributing to the success or failure of prior long-term planning exercises and to grow the body of knowledge on the design of future mid-century strategies.

报名here如果您想通过我们的每月新闻通讯保持联系，活动通知和网络研讨会的重点是长期气候和发展策略。必威官网是真的吗