随着世界现在即将越过巴黎协议的门槛，是时候开始考虑接下来会发生什么了。

该协议将在至少55个大会核算当事人总共至少以至少55％的全球温室气体排放为单位的日期后30天生效，已存放其批准，接受，批准或加入的工具。

昨天，印度成为第62个国家，当时它将其批准工具存放在其提交后一年之后一年预定的全国决心贡献。有55多个政党已经加入，我们现在只有3.11％的距离还达到满足排放门槛entry into force。根据9月30日欧洲理事会的决定，欧盟（EU）也将与其一些成员国（例如德国，法国，奥地利，匈牙利，斯洛伐克，葡萄牙和马耳他）一起加入。预计加拿大本周将正式加入。如果所有这些步骤都通过，那么本周肯定会越过排放阈值。

10月7日：生效的关键日期

生效后，《巴黎协定》规定，《巴黎协定当事方》（称为CMA1）的第一次会议将与《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的下一次当事方（COP）结合（COP）（COP）（COP）（COP）（COP）（COP）（COP）（COP）（必威官网是真的吗UNDCCC）。

That makes October 7 the magic date for crossing the threshold. If the threshold is crossed by then, entry into force will happen 30 days later, and CMA1 will be held in conjunction with COP22, which begins November 7.

Why is CMA1 Significant?

Once the Paris Agreement enters into force, the CMA – made up only of countries (and the EU) that have joined – becomes the Agreement’s governing body, with authority over all substantive, procedural, administrative and operational matters. As decisions about how to implement the Agreement and adopt its rules – including transparency rules and processes for the global stocktake and raising ambition – get placed on the table in coming months and years, it will be critical to address the process for making those decisions. CMA1 will be a key moment not only in starting to make those decisions, but also to determine the process for doing so.

Countries that have not yet joined the Paris Agreement can attend and participate in the CMA, but in principle only as observers. Observers can actively participate in discussions by making interventions and submissions but do not have decision-making power. However, there are discussions underway about how to make the process as inclusive as possible and enable countries that are not yet Parties to have a clear role in the process.

This is essential because CMA1 is required by the Paris Agreement to make a number of decisions necessary to fully implement the Paris Agreement. This includes the work program established at COP21 to put in place various modalities, procedures and guidelines (MPGs) for the transparency regime, the information required in communicating NDCs, and the processes to take stock and raise ambition, facilitate implementation and promote compliance. The CMA1 must also make decisions on procedural, institutional and administrative matters, including how and when to complete the work program for the MPGs.

鉴于出乎意料的入境速度，这些重要的技术决策需要足够的时间进行协商，包括确定何时新制度和相关规则将取代现有规则。

此外，所有打算加入巴黎协定的国家都应该有机会在做出关键的最终决定之前这样做。但是，许多国家将无法完成今年的国内批准程序。有关这些过程是什么的更多信息，请参阅WRI中的国内批准地图巴黎协定跟踪器。

各方如何确保包容性？

自去年12月COP21以来，各方一直在讨论如何确保CMA1可以采用所有必要的关键决策，而不会过分匆忙谈判并保持过程包容性。

如果今年或下一年召集了CMA1，则有三个主要选择来解决这些问题：

  • 在今年的COP22的两周内，总结了MPG的所有工作；
  • 在今年的CMA1上确定一些问题，并在未来的会议上进行剩下的事情；和
  • 将CMA1在技术上保持在称为悬架的过程中，以便CMA1延伸到一个或多个将来的警察。实际上，这意味着CMA1将在Marrakech开放，但不会在会议结束时正式关闭。

前两个选择在政治和技术上不那么可行。政党围绕暂停CMA1关闭的概念汇聚，直到MPG完全开发到所有国家都有合理的机会加入为止。这将使所有希望加入这样做的方面的各方成为根据COP21建立的时间表的最终决策和采用MPG的一部分。

There are precedents. Suspended sessions have happened before under the UNFCCC, at COP6 in The Hague in 2000 and in the preparatory meetings in advance of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

What Decisions Need to be Taken at COP22 to Manage This Process?

如果CMA1今年发生，将有一些技术和程序问题可以解决。

To ensure an efficient, robust and inclusive process, the CMA1 at COP22 will need to decide on three key issues:

1.什么时候暂停CMA1？

Two options:

  • CMA1 could open and be suspended immediately without making any substantive decisions (other than to determine a timeframe for suspension and institutional responsibility as discussed further below). It could then re-open next year at COP23 and immediately suspend again or skip COP23 and re-open at COP24. This would allow all Parties to fully participate.
  • CMA1可以打开并开始进行一些实质性工作，然后再在COP22结束时暂停，然后在COP23继续进行这项有限的实质性工作。这应该伴随着CMA关于观察者完全参与的能力的明确决定。

2. When would the suspension period end?

Two options:

  • 在COP22结束后保持CMA1打开，并在每个成功的警察处重新开放，并做出了关于是否基于取得的进度继续停赛的新决定。这冒着开放式CMA1的风险，对当事方最少的压力最终确定MPG并加入巴黎协定。
  • 各方同意一个终点，以确保仍然有足够的压力加入巴黎协议并及时完成MPG的谈判，从而避免他们何时结束的不确定性或混乱。逻辑终点是2018年（COP24），它符合巴黎在巴黎的COP决定中确定的关于透明度框架规则和财务的时间表。

3.哪个机构应负责进行工作计划？

COP创建了一个临时工作组（APA），并与现有的UNFCCC子公司（SBSTA和SBI）一起指控它，以完成MPGS和工作计划的制定以实施《巴黎协定》。COP建立的工作组（APA）的当前授权准备生效，CMA1仅延伸直到召集CMA1（决策1/CP.21的第8段）。

As the governing body, the CMA must determine responsibility going forward.

Two options:

  • CMA could continue the preparatory work currently assigned to the APA under its own authority, with the assistance of the UNFCCC subsidiary bodies. That would mean only a limited number of Parties (those that have joined the Paris Agreement) could participate in decision-making; others would be observers.
  • CMA可以要求COP根据当前的安排继续工作，这意味着APA以及根据其当前议程和工作计划的子公司和构成机构。这将确保所有各方都能继续参加，就像警察局一样。

These are important, and sometimes complex, decisions, but it is also a good thing to have to make them now. Holding CMA1 less than one year after the adoption of the Agreement itself is not only symbolic but also largely unprecedented for international agreements of this importance. The commitment shown by countries in driving rapid entry into force demonstrates the huge political will to tackle climate change. That political will must now be applied towards implementing the Paris Agreement in the most robust, inclusive, and ambitious way possible.